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TradeFred Daily Briefing
Mon 19-11-2018 12:00

In Brief:

  • US-Sino relations sour further as APEC fails to agree a communiqué
  • Greenback wobbles after Fed’s growth concern
  • Japan’s exports rebound
  • US manufacturing output rises for 5th straight month

The Yuan slipped versus the US Dollar on Monday as US-China relations soured over the weekend. The USD/CNY pair traded 0.1% higher to 6.9445 by 12:01 AM ET (05:01 GMT).

Leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) failed to agree on a communiqué for the first time in history, according to reports over the weekend. Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Peter O’Neill, who was chairman of the meeting, said “the two big giants in the room” were the two members of the APEC that could not agree. O’Neill added that Beijing and Washington could not agree on whether “World Trade Organisation and reform of the World Trade Organisation” should be in the Leaders’ Declaration.

The USD eased slightly versus other major currencies on Monday after Federal Reserve officials expressed caution over the global growth outlook, prompting traders to reassess the pace of future US interest rate increases. The Greenback has enjoyed a strong run this year thanks to the Fed's steady policy tightening on the back of a robust economy and rising wage pressures. A fourth rate hike for this year is expected next month and policy makers had indicated two more by June 2019.

Oil prices edged up on Monday morning in Asia as de-facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia drives the organization and its allies to slash supply to boost Oil prices after a sell-off earlier this month. Crude Oil WTI Futures for January delivery rose 1.15% to $57.33 a barrel at 10:50PM ET (02:50 GMT) on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent Oil Futures for January delivery also inched up 0.66% to $67.44 per barrel on London’s Intercontinental Exchange.

Asian shares crept cautiously higher on Monday amid conflicting signals on the chance of a truce in the Sino-US trade dispute, while the Federal Reserve's new-found concern on the global economy undermined the US Dollar. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan tacked on 0.1% and Chinese blue chips 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.4%, but E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%.

Japan's exports rebounded in the year to October, reversing from the prior month's surprise drop as US-bound car shipments grew, although slowing global demand and the intensifying US-China trade war cloud the outlook for export-reliant Japan. Ministry of Finance (MOF) data out on Monday showed exports rose 8.2% in October from a year before, slightly below a 9.0% gain expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

US manufacturing output rose for a fifth straight month in October, shrugging off a sharp drop in motor vehicle production and suggesting underlying strength in factory activity despite growing headwinds that are expected to slow the sector in 2019. The Federal Reserve said on Friday manufacturing production rose 0.3% last month. Data for September was revised up to show output at factories increasing 0.3% instead of advancing 0.2% as previously reported.

The European Central Bank's monetary policy will stay easy even after it probably stops adding to its pile of bonds next month and it can adapt its policy normalization as needed, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday. The ECB is due to wrap up its 2.6 trillion Euro bond buying program next month, paving the way to raise interest rates sometime after next summer for the first time in eight years as part of a long path toward monetary policy normalization.

In cryptocurrencies, XRP was trading at $0.52934 by 01:17 (06:17 GMT) on the Investing.com Index on Sunday, up 10.39% on the day. It was the largest one-day percentage gain since November 6. The move upwards pushed XRP's market cap up to $20.87807B, or 11.21% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. At its highest, XRP's market cap was $79.53400B. XRP had traded in a range of $0.49550 to $0.52934 in the previous twenty-four hours.

See Also

In Brief:

  • US-Sino relations sour further as APEC fails to agree a communiqué
  • Greenback wobbles after Fed’s growth concern
  • Japan’s exports rebound
  • US manufacturing output rises for 5th straight month

The Yuan slipped versus the US Dollar on Monday as US-China relations soured over the weekend. The USD/CNY pair traded 0.1% higher to 6.9445 by 12:01 AM ET (05:01 GMT).

TradeFred Daily Briefing

In Brief:

  • BOJ think-tank argues for ditching negative interest rates
  • Calamity for Sterling as May faces Brexit crisis
  • US to urge China to resume soybean imports
  • American retail sales rebound sharply

A think-tank affiliated with the Bank of Japan has issued an academic paper arguing that ditching negative interest rates could help accelerate inflation, a sign debate within the bank about the rising cost of prolonged monetary easing is growing.

While the paper does not represent the official central bank view, it has been interpreted by some market participants as a sign the BOJ is becoming more open to debating a future exit from its massive stimulus program.

TradeFred Daily Briefing